2025年制冷剂配额核发情况点评：2025年制冷剂配额公示，看好产品长期景气度

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][22]. Core Views - The announcement of the 2025 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side for both second and third-generation refrigerants, leading to an optimistic outlook for the refrigerant product market [3][4]. - For second-generation refrigerants, the total production and usage are reduced by 67.5% and 73.2% from the baseline, respectively, with R22's internal production quota decreasing by approximately 28%, supported by demand in the air conditioning repair market [3][7]. - The third-generation refrigerants maintain the total control targets at baseline levels, with specific adjustments in quotas for R32, R125, R134a, and R143a compared to 2024 [3][8]. - The report suggests that as quota management deepens and industry competition becomes more concentrated, alongside stable growth in downstream air conditioning and automotive demand, the long-term outlook for second and third-generation refrigerants remains positive [3][22]. Summary by Sections 2025 Refrigerant Quota Overview - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has accepted quota applications from 48 companies for second-generation refrigerants and 67 companies for third-generation refrigerants for 2025 [2][4]. - The production volume of HCFCs has been reduced by 49,900 tons, a decrease of 23.37% [2][4]. Second-Generation Refrigerants - The total production quota for HCFCs in 2025 is set at 163,600 tons, with internal production and usage quotas at 86,000 tons [7]. - Specific reductions include R22 production and internal quotas down by 18% and 28%, respectively, while R141b and R142b quotas see significant reductions of 57%/68% and 64%/79% [7]. Third-Generation Refrigerants - The production quota for R32 is 280,300 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from 2024, while R125 and R143a quotas also see slight increases, and R134a's quota is reduced by 7,401 tons [8]. - The report highlights the flexibility in quota adjustments, allowing companies to submit applications for quota changes based on actual demand [3][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with comprehensive industrial chains, advanced technology, and robust infrastructure, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources [3][22].