2025年利率债投资策略：开弓之箭，顺势而为

Interest Rate Trends - The 10-year government bond yield broke through 1.8% in 2024, and the interest rate center is expected to continue to decline, potentially falling below 1.7%[6] - The low interest rate environment is a prerequisite for stable growth, and the financialization process often leads to a low interest rate era[7] - The central bank's new phase of base money injection through secondary market bond purchases may lead to more liquidity in the bond market[9] Policy and Market Dynamics - The 2025 bond market is expected to face a significant supply of interest rate bonds, with government bond issuance peaking from May onwards[9] - The monetary policy in 2025 will focus on stabilizing growth, with fiscal policy following to create a supportive environment for the bond market[14] - The central bank's intervention in the bond market is more about curve control rather than directional correction, with a focus on buying short-term and selling long-term bonds[85] Institutional Behavior - Banks are under pressure to reduce costs, leading to a potential decline in NCD and short-term interest rates[8] - Insurance companies are increasingly favoring higher-yielding bonds, such as local government bonds, due to the low interest rate environment[16] - Rural commercial banks have shown high success rates in trading, but the frequency of their high-frequency operations has decreased due to regulatory attention[16] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction - The fiscal policy in 2025 is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in the deficit rate and the issuance of ultra-long bonds[118] - The monetary policy is set to be "moderately loose," with potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions[118] - The interaction between fiscal and monetary policies is likely to result in a bond market with ample liquidity and a continued bull trend[102] Market Outlook - The bond market in 2025 is expected to remain in a bull trend, with low interest rates and ample liquidity supporting the market[49] - The central bank's new tools for base money injection and the potential for further monetary easing are key factors to watch in 2025[78] - The bond market's performance will be influenced by the balance between supply and demand, with a focus on the impact of government bond issuance and market liquidity[20]