农林牧渔行业2025年年度投资策略：布局顺周期投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the agricultural sector, with specific recommendations for key companies: Buy for Haida Group, and Hold for Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, Lihua Food, and KQ Bio [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 10.7% from the beginning of 2024 to November 22, ranking 30th among 31 industries [2][24]. - The livestock and feed sectors faced challenges due to falling pig prices, while the animal health sector struggled with a weak cycle and declining performance [2]. - The pet food sector outperformed other agricultural sub-sectors, driven by high growth in performance [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Agricultural Sector Overview - The agricultural sector's revenue growth slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 4% in the first three quarters of 2024, contrasting with a 4% growth in 2023 [16]. - The livestock sector saw a recovery in profitability starting Q2 2024, with pig prices entering a new upward cycle [20][24]. 2. Pet Food Industry - The pet food market in China exceeded 50 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.48% from 2018 to 2023 [37]. - The market is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing penetration of professional pet food and a shift towards higher spending on pet care [41][45]. 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is anticipated to recover as livestock profitability improves and consumption rebounds [2]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Haida Group for investment opportunities in the feed sector [2]. 4. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is expected to maintain profitability in 2025, with a gradual recovery in production capacity [2]. - Key companies to watch include Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery [2]. 5. Chicken Farming - The white chicken breeding is recovering, while yellow chicken production remains low, indicating potential price increases if demand improves [2]. 6. Planting Chain - Grain prices are expected to stabilize, while the natural rubber market is entering a bullish phase due to supply reductions [2].