原油月报：OPEC+减产再续，供应压力后延

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous and new materials sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ supply expectations have changed, with potential sanctions on Russian oil, leading to slight fluctuations in oil prices [3]. - The extension of OPEC+ production cuts is expected to delay supply pressures, but the overall market fundamentals remain weak [4][5]. Summary by Sections OPEC Supply and Demand - OPEC+ has announced an extension of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of Q1 2025, which is expected to reduce global oil inventories by 400,000 barrels per day on average in 2024 [4][5]. - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $74 per barrel in Q1 2025, but may decline to $72 per barrel by Q4 2025 due to increasing supply pressures [4]. Global Oil Price Outlook - The report indicates that while the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is in a depleting state, gasoline and distillate fuel consumption is declining, leading to concerns about refined oil demand [5]. - The overall oil price is expected to face downward pressure due to anticipated increases in global oil supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [5]. Demand Forecast - OPEC has revised down its global oil demand forecast for 2024 to 103.8 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels per day from the previous month, with China's demand also adjusted downwards [23]. - For 2025, global oil demand is projected to be 105.3 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 300,000 barrels per day from earlier estimates [23]. Production Trends - Non-OPEC countries are expected to see a significant increase in oil production, with the U.S., Canada, and Brazil leading the growth [10][39]. - The report highlights that OPEC's production cuts have been effective in mitigating supply excesses, but the overall supply-demand balance remains fragile [33][39].