金属行业2025年度投资策略系列报告之能源金属篇：出清信号明显，曙光已现

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the metal industry, particularly focusing on energy metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel [4] Core Views - Lithium: The industry is showing clear signs of clearing, with Australian mines reducing or halting production, leading to a bottoming of lithium prices. Supply increments have been significantly revised downward, improving the industry's supply-demand balance [3][40] - Cobalt: Cobalt prices have hit historical lows, and supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) may fall short of expectations due to cost pressures. The industry is at a historical bottom, with potential for recovery [3][41] - Nickel: Nickel prices remain firm due to tight supply from Indonesia, but downstream demand is weak. The industry is closely monitoring resource depletion in Indonesia [3][41] Lithium Sector Supply - Australian Mines: Four Australian mines have announced production halts, totaling 750,000 tons of lithium concentrate (approximately 100,000 tons LCE). Further reductions in production are expected as mines face profitability challenges [44][45] - South American Salt Lakes: The actual costs of lithium extraction in South America are underestimated, and new capacity releases may fall short of expectations. Supply increments for 2025 have been revised down by 167,000 tons LCE [51][52] - African Mines: Despite cost pressures, African mines are expected to continue releasing supply, with a projected increase of 63,000 tons LCE in 2025. However, political risks in Mali could impact production [56][62] Demand - New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): Domestic NEV sales in China exceeded expectations in 2024, with cumulative sales reaching 1126 million units, up 364% year-on-year. Policy support is expected to sustain rapid growth in 2025 [74][75] - Energy Storage: The energy storage sector is experiencing strong growth, with domestic energy storage bidding capacity reaching 1394 GWh in 2024, up 527% year-on-year. This sector is expected to drive lithium demand growth [83][84] Supply-Demand Balance - Bottoming Signals: Lithium prices have reached a bottom, with cash costs supporting prices at around 62,000 RMB/ton LCE. The industry is expected to see further clearing, with supply-demand balance improving significantly [101][107] Cobalt Sector Supply - DRC and Indonesia: The DRC and Indonesia are the main sources of cobalt supply growth. However, cobalt prices have fallen below the cost line for most DRC mines, leading to potential supply shortages [110][113] - Cobalt Imports: China's imports of cobalt intermediates increased by 795% in 2024, with the DRC being the primary source. This is largely due to increased exports from Luoyang Molybdenum's mines [117][123] Demand - Battery Sector: The battery sector remains the primary driver of cobalt demand, accounting for 45% of global demand in 2023. However, the share of ternary batteries in NEVs is declining, impacting cobalt demand [137][142] Nickel Sector Supply - Indonesia: Nickel supply from Indonesia remains tight due to slow RKAB approvals and resource depletion. Indonesia has had to import nickel ore from the Philippines to meet demand [34][41] - Downstream Demand: Nickel demand from stainless steel and nickel sulfate remains weak, but the structural contradiction in the nickel market has been resolved with the introduction of high-ice nickel to pure nickel processes [41][123] Supply-Demand Balance - Nickel Prices: Nickel prices are expected to remain firm due to tight supply, but downstream demand weakness may limit price increases. The industry is closely monitoring resource consumption in Indonesia [41][123] Key Recommended Companies - Lithium Sector: Companies with production flexibility and cost advantages, such as Zangge Mining, Sinomine Resource, Yongxing Materials, and Salt Lake Co, are recommended. Additionally, Shengxin Lithium and Yahua Group are worth monitoring as they transition to self-owned mines [3][21] - Cobalt and Nickel Sector: Huayou Cobalt is recommended due to its integrated upstream and downstream layout, particularly in the context of cobalt price recovery and nickel resource depletion [3][21]