建筑建材行业2025年度投资策略：预期逐渐改善，重视估值修复机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the building materials industry, anticipating a gradual improvement in the sector's fundamentals and valuation recovery [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expectation of a stabilization in the real estate market, which is crucial for the building materials sector, as demand is closely tied to real estate performance. The ongoing supportive policies are expected to enhance the overall valuation of building materials [3][4]. - It highlights the importance of local government debt resolution and market management, suggesting that these factors will lead to marginal improvements in the building sector's fundamentals and valuation recovery [3][4]. - The report also points out the potential growth in new materials, such as active magnesium oxide and medicinal glass, which are expected to see increased demand and market penetration [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials sector is experiencing pressure due to declining real estate sales and new construction starts, with a significant drop in sales area from 17.9 billion square meters in 2021 to 11.2 billion square meters in 2023, a decrease of 37.4% [42]. - The report notes that the new construction area has also seen a decline, with a 52.3% drop from 19.9 billion square meters in 2021 to 9.5 billion square meters in 2023 [48]. Demand and Market Conditions - The report indicates that the construction industry is facing challenges, with a 17.1% decline in real estate sales growth and a 22.2% drop in new construction growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [34]. - It mentions that the cement industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to anticipated improvements in supply and demand dynamics [65]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as North New Materials (000786), Oriental Yuhong (002271), and Huaxin Cement (600801), which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market [4]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in new materials, such as Ponaite (002225) and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (600529), which are positioned to benefit from increasing market demand [4]. Financial Performance - The report highlights that the overall net profit growth for building materials and construction companies has been negative, with declines of 51.8% and 11.7% respectively in recent quarters [34][36]. - It notes that the cement industry's profit was around 32 billion yuan in 2023, a significant drop from 186.7 billion yuan in 2019, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [65].