2025年度宏观：展望内外·虚实·因果

Overseas - Trump's potential re-election may lead to a new round of currency wars, with aggressive tariffs and fiscal expansion pushing U.S. labor demand and wage inflation higher[2] - The Fed is expected to cut rates twice by 25BP in H1 2025, while non-U.S. developed economies may accelerate rate cuts, leading to a stronger USD and potential spillover depreciation pressures[2] Exports - U.S. extreme tariff policies could significantly reduce global export growth, with China facing higher potential targeted tariffs and a larger export decline[3] - China's export growth (USD terms) is forecasted at 5.1% in 2024 and -4.8% in 2025, with net exports contributing less to GDP growth[3] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate demand is expected to approach an "L-shaped" inflection point in H2 2025, with new residential sales projected at 8.1 billion sqm in 2024 and 7.3 billion sqm in 2025[4] - Fiscal subsidies for durable goods consumption are expected to expand to 500 billion RMB in 2025, covering sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and furniture[4] Debt Reduction and Infrastructure - China's macro leverage ratio has surpassed the U.S., with government debt rising due to low investment returns, necessitating stronger deleveraging efforts[6] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 8.6% in 2025, with a focus on new urban infrastructure projects characterized by informatization and smart city features[6] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a deficit ratio of 3.6%-4.0%, issuance of 1.5-2 trillion RMB in ultra-long-term special bonds, and 4.2 trillion RMB in new special bonds[7] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a 40BP cut in policy rates and LPR in 2025, and a 100-150BP reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[7] Summary - The 2025 economic strategy focuses on balancing growth, structural optimization, and exchange rate stability, with a GDP growth target of around 4.5%[8] - Risks include lower-than-expected fiscal expansion and monetary easing, as well as higher-than-expected external environment complexity[8]