轻工制造行业2025年度投资策略：结构景气，产品为王

Investment Rating - The report rates the light industry manufacturing sector as "Positive" for investment [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of product iteration cycles and structural prosperity in the light industry manufacturing sector, suggesting a focus on both value-driven and growth-oriented consumer trends for 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Sections 2025 Investment Outlook - The report identifies two main investment themes for 2025: "upgrading old for new" and "self-indulgent consumption." It notes that the housing sector is expected to improve due to subsidies and positive second-hand housing transaction data [5]. - The report highlights the performance of emerging domestic brands and export-oriented companies in 2024, with a recovery in sectors like home furnishings and paper manufacturing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Theme One: Value Stocks - Focus on companies benefiting from the "upgrading old for new" initiative, such as Mousse, Xilinmen, and Oppein, which are expected to see significant performance improvements [6]. - Theme Two: Growth Stocks - Emphasizes the "self-indulgent consumption" trend, particularly among younger consumers, with recommendations for companies in the pet and trendy toy sectors, such as Guobao Pet and Bubble Mart [6]. Sector Analysis - Home Furnishings: The report anticipates demand stimulation from government subsidies, leading to increased market concentration among leading brands [21]. - Paper Manufacturing: The report notes that the sector is at a cyclical low, with a focus on companies that combine resource advantages and management efficiency, recommending Sun Paper as a key player [42]. - Packaging: The report suggests monitoring opportunities related to stable dividends and mergers and acquisitions within the packaging industry [21]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the light industry manufacturing sector has underperformed the broader market in 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 8.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 11.82% [10]. - It highlights that certain sub-sectors, such as plastic packaging, have shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 27.5% [10]. Fund Holdings - The report notes a decline in fund holdings in the light industry sector, with a 2.50% holding ratio in Q3 2024, down 0.48 percentage points from Q2 [16]. Key companies with significant fund holdings include Sun Paper and Morning Glory [16].