山西证券：研究早观点-20241219

Group 1: Coal Industry - The coal supply has continued to recover, with a slight increase in raw coal production in the first eleven months of 2024, reaching 4.322 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.20% [22][24] - Manufacturing investment remains high, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.3% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.30% [23][27] - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are under pressure, with Shanxi mixed thermal coal averaging 845 RMB/ton in November, down 10.64% year-on-year [24][25] Group 2: New Stock Market - The new stock market activity has decreased, with the first-day gains of new stocks in December showing a decline in valuation [4][5] - Notable new listings include Pioneer Precision, which saw a first-day increase of 652.88% with a valuation of 83.84 times [4][6] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a significant number of new stocks experiencing declines [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Retail - In November 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.38 trillion RMB, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, but below market expectations [12][14] - Online retail channels continue to outperform traditional retail, with online sales of physical goods increasing by 6.8% year-on-year [14][15] - The consumer confidence index showed signs of recovery, ending a continuous decline since April 2024 [14][15] Group 4: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock market and expanding personal pension products [28][29] - The conference highlighted the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support market liquidity [28][29] - The personal pension market is expected to grow significantly, with over 6 trillion RMB in pension assets currently managed by public funds [29][30] Group 5: Agriculture Sector - The pig farming sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the fourth quarter, with pig prices showing an upward trend [34][35] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces has increased, indicating a recovery in the market [34][35] - The overall financial condition of the industry is under pressure, necessitating a recovery cycle to restore balance sheets [35][36] Group 6: Communication Industry - Google's Willow quantum computing chip has made significant advancements, potentially accelerating the commercialization of quantum computing [39][40] - Broadcom's ASIC business is performing better than expected, with a projected market size of up to 90 billion USD by 2027 [40][42] - The communication sector is experiencing varied performance, with specific segments like IoT and cloud computing showing strong growth [42][43] Group 7: Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector has seen a decline, with the new materials index dropping by 1.89% [44][45] - The central economic meeting emphasized the development of new productive forces and a comprehensive green transition [48][49] - The synthetic biology market is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion RMB by 2033, with a CAGR of 16.6% from 2023 to 2033 [48][49]