铝行业深度报告：这边风景独好，看好国内铝业持续成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the aluminum industry, indicating a cautious optimism about its growth potential in the domestic market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the concentrated distribution of global aluminum ore reserves, primarily located in Australia, Brazil, and Guinea, with Guinea's reserves accounting for approximately 25% of the total [3][4]. - China's aluminum smelting capacity is robust, with the country producing nearly 60% of the world's primary aluminum in 2023, achieving a self-sufficiency level in production [4][59]. - The report emphasizes the correlation between aluminum consumption and macroeconomic indicators, particularly GDP growth, with a noted lag in the growth rate of the secondary industry compared to aluminum consumption [4][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Aluminum Ore Distribution - Global bauxite reserves are concentrated in a few countries, with Guinea holding about 7.4 billion tons, representing 25% of the total reserves [28]. - Major aluminum-producing countries include Australia, China, and Guinea, which together account for approximately 70% of global production [3][30]. - The production from key mines has been declining, with Guinea's advantages becoming more pronounced [4][48]. 2. China's Aluminum Production and Consumption - In 2023, China's primary aluminum production reached approximately 41.67 million tons, accounting for about 59% of global output, with a significant increase since 2000 [59]. - China's electrolytic aluminum consumption is projected to be around 43.26 million tons in 2023, representing over 60% of global consumption [59][60]. - The self-sufficiency rate for electrolytic aluminum in China is high, with domestic production meeting 96.2% of consumption needs [60]. 3. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report notes that the aluminum price dynamics are closely linked to macroeconomic indicators, with manufacturing PMI and CPI effectively reflecting aluminum price trends [4][59]. - The export of aluminum products from China to the Middle East has been increasing, with significant growth in vehicle parts and aluminum products [6][59]. - The profitability of leading aluminum companies in China has remained stable, with a trend of increasing net profit margins despite fluctuations in aluminum prices [5][59].