12月FOMC会议点评：美联储迈入缓步降息新阶段

Monetary Policy and Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve announced a 25bp rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%[2] - The Fed revised its economic forecasts, raising 2024 GDP growth to 2.5% and 2025 GDP growth to 2.1%, while lowering the 2024 unemployment rate forecast to 4.2%[18] - The dot plot suggests a potential 50bp rate cut in 2025, reduced from previous projections[3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones fell 2.58% and the Nasdaq dropped 3.56%[5] - 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.5%, while the dollar index climbed past 108[5] - Gold prices declined to approximately $2,600 per ounce[5] Inflation and Labor Market - Core PCE inflation for 2024 is projected at 2.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates[20] - The labor market has cooled but remains solid, with foreign-born labor increasing by 5.03 million since March 2021[31] Future Policy Outlook - The Fed may shift from monthly to quarterly/semi-annual rate cuts, potentially pausing in January 2025[26] - Disinflation progress has stalled, with CPI median and trimmed mean CPI showing limited improvement[27]