东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241219

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the majority of A-share indices have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 90%, indicating significant internal valuation differentiation within the market [1][10] - Key sectors with sustained valuation increases include steel, building materials, commerce, automotive, computing, electronics, and real estate, while sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services remain undervalued [1][10] - For market rotation to occur, sectors must either show fundamental improvement or have policy expectations [1][10] Fixed Income - The economic fundamentals show signs of gradual recovery, with consumer spending supported by policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, but uncertainties remain regarding household income recovery [2][13] - Fixed asset investment is experiencing structural differentiation, with manufacturing investment remaining high, infrastructure investment stable, but real estate investment declining, which poses risks to market confidence [2][13] - The report notes that the yields on 10Y and 30Y government bonds have fallen below 2%, reflecting expectations of a moderately loose monetary policy [2][13] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in forklift sales in November 2024, with domestic sales down 2% and exports up 17% [3][17] - The report indicates that the domestic demand for forklifts is under pressure due to low manufacturing sector activity, but the decline in domestic sales is narrowing [3][17] - The overall performance of the forklift sector remains stable, with revenue of 31.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 1% and 15% year-on-year increase, respectively [3][17] Steel Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a rebound in profitability as supply-demand structures continue to optimize, despite ongoing challenges from the real estate sector [6][8] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are transitioning product structures and benefiting from strong demand in downstream segments, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel [6][8] - The anticipated supply surplus in the steel industry for 2025 indicates that prices may remain volatile, with expectations of prices fluctuating between 3000-4000 yuan per ton [6][8]