能源金属2025年度投资策略：锂钴稀土磁材静待反转，固态电池材料成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the energy metals sector [1]. Core Insights - The demand structure changes and continuous capital expenditure growth are the main reasons for the recent price corrections in energy metals [1]. - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate has reached new highs, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) significantly increasing their market share [1][30]. - The lithium sector is expected to see a price bottoming out, with the industry entering a phase of gradual allocation increase [1][49]. - The cobalt market is projected to experience a sustained oversupply from 2024 to 2025, but the extent of the oversupply is expected to decrease [1][46]. - The rare earth sector is maintaining a tight supply-demand balance, with new regulations and quota growth slowing down [1][46]. Summary by Sections 1. New Demand from Energy Storage and Battery Technologies - The highest application scenarios for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are in batteries and new energy vehicles, with lithium battery demand reaching 87% in 2023 [30]. - The capital expenditure for mainstream lithium companies has grown at a CAGR of 25% from 2018 to 2023, while cobalt and rare earth companies have seen CAGRs of 56% and 17%, respectively [46][47]. - The report highlights that energy storage is expected to take over from electric vehicles as a growth driver, with lithium prices declining and storage demand anticipated to rise [49]. 2. Supply-Demand Dynamics in Energy Metals - The lithium market is nearing a price bottom, with expectations of a gradual increase in stock allocation as prices stabilize [1][49]. - The cobalt market is forecasted to have an oversupply of 24,000 tons in 2024, decreasing to 17,430 tons by 2025 [1][46]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide remaining low around 400,000 yuan/ton in 2024 [1][46]. 3. Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with new materials like lithium sulfide and zirconium expected to benefit from this growth [1][49]. - The report anticipates that by 2030, global solid-state battery shipments will reach 614.1 GWh, significantly higher than previous forecasts [1][49]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in new materials for solid-state batteries, such as Yuyuan New Materials and Dongfang Zirconium [1][49].