美联储系列十五：美联储12月降息25BP，关注风险

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December, marking the second consecutive month of such a reduction[10] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) rate was lowered by 30 basis points to 4.25%, aligning it with the lower bound of the federal funds target range for the first time since 2021[10] - One voting member opposed the rate cut, indicating a divergence in views on monetary policy[10] Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Powell stated that the risks to achieving the dual goals of controlling inflation and promoting employment are roughly balanced, with significant progress made in controlling inflation[10] - The Fed will require more evidence of progress on inflation before considering further rate cuts[10] Market Risks - Increased uncertainty in financial markets due to anticipated "hawkish" rate cuts and global macroeconomic uncertainties[11] - Short-term risk scenarios include a bullish outlook on volatility (VIX) and a bearish outlook on the Euro (EUR)[11] Economic Data and Projections - The probability of a rate cut in March 2025 is estimated at 35%[16] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to continue flattening, indicating potential pressure on industrial consumption demand in the short term[11] Inflation and Financial Conditions - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is reported at 3.32%, with various components showing differing inflation rates, such as transportation services at 7.06%[29] - Financial conditions are moving towards easing, as indicated by various financial pressure indices[18]