平安证券：晨会纪要-20241219

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The report highlights that international oil prices have shown slight increases since December, primarily influenced by OPEC+ supply expectations and geopolitical risks [10][11][12] - OPEC+ announced an extension of voluntary production cuts until the end of Q1 2025, with an additional reduction of 1.657 million barrels per day extended to the end of 2026, which is expected to alleviate oversupply pressures [10][12] - Concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia's oil industry have also contributed to rising oil prices, despite a decline in gasoline and distillate consumption in the U.S. [10][12] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the global economic and political landscape may experience significant turmoil in 2025, particularly with the return of Trump and his "America First" policies, which could impact non-U.S. economies [16][19] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at around 2% in 2025, with limited impacts from Trump's tax cuts and tariffs, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see modest recoveries [16][17] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are expected to create further uncertainties in the global economic environment [18][19] Group 3: Commodity Market Strategies - The report suggests that credit bonds may see an increase in both supply and demand in 2025, but the pace of growth may differ, with a recommendation to focus on mid-to-long-term high-grade bonds in the first half of the year [23][24] - Specific strategies include focusing on low-grade long-term city investment bonds and opportunities arising from state-owned enterprises and financial bonds due to reduced supply pressures [24][23] - The overall credit market is expected to benefit from policy support and a strong demand environment, particularly in key regions [24][23]