固定收益专题（2024-12-19）：2025年，信用债的危与机

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, credit bond yields experienced an overall decline, with a notable drop in the first half of the year, particularly after the prohibition of manual interest supplementation in early April[12] - The bank loan demand index is at a seasonal low, indicating weak financing demand, which contributes to the ongoing "asset shortage" in the market[18] - By the end of 2024, the annual investment return for 30-year government bonds reached 16.95%[15] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy for 2025 emphasizes focusing on ultra-long credit bonds, as liquidity improvements may support a reduction in credit spreads[2] - Investment in secondary capital bonds is recommended due to their relatively stable credit quality and liquidity, making them suitable for both long-duration strategies and as a compromise in uncertain market conditions[2] - For city investment bonds, the credit risk is deemed controllable, with a recommendation to consider 5Y AA(2) and 2Y AA- bonds for mainstream bottom-line assets[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected macroeconomic performance, volatility in the liability side, and the development of credit risk events beyond expectations[3] - The supply side remains constrained, with high-yield assets still scarce, particularly in city investment bonds and industry bonds[1]