策略点评报告：12月FOMC：鹰派降息落地，美国股债双杀

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5% during the December meeting[7] - The dot plot indicates only two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and 2026, a significant reduction from the four cuts previously projected in September[7][24] - Inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 were revised upward, with 2024's forecast increasing from 2.3% to 2.4% and 2025's from 2.1% to 2.5%[8][25] Economic Projections - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were lowered by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating stronger economic confidence[9][25] - Economic growth projections for 2024 and 2025 were increased by 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively[9] Market Reactions - Following the hawkish signals, major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping by 3.56%[10][27] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged past 4.5% to 4.52%, and the U.S. dollar index exceeded 108[10][27] - Gold prices fell below $2,600, closing at $2,587, while the VIX index rose by 78%[10][27] Future Outlook - The probability of a pause in rate cuts in January has risen to 91%, with market expectations suggesting only one rate cut in 2025[10][26] - The Fed's cautious approach to future rate cuts is influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the need for clear economic data[10][26] Risks - Potential risks include the underperformance of Trump's new policies and renewed geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic stability[14][42]