鹰派降息，市场定价HigherforLonger

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.5% on December 19, 2024, aligning with market expectations[3] - The Fed signaled a cautious approach to future rate cuts, indicating a potential pause in January 2025 and future cuts dependent on inflation data[4] - The number of expected rate cuts in 2025 was reduced from 4 to 2, reflecting a decrease in the overall expected cut magnitude from 100 basis points to 50 basis points[5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Nasdaq down 3.62%, S&P 500 down 2.95%, and Dow Jones down 2.58%[3] - The market's perception shifted towards a "Higher for Longer" stance, with expectations for rate cuts in 2025 being revised down from 48.3 basis points to around 25 basis points[6][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise by approximately 20 basis points, moving from a range of 4.1-4.3% to 4.3-4.5%[8][10] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed's confidence in achieving its inflation target has decreased, with the core CPI remaining around 3.66%, significantly above the 2% target[5] - The Fed revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2024-2026, with the 2025 PCE inflation rate adjusted to 2.5%, up by 0.4 percentage points from previous estimates[5][6] - The timeline for reaching the 2% inflation target has been pushed back from 2026 to 2027[5]