宏观点评：2025美联储还有几次降息？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of [4.25, 4.5]%, marking a total reduction of 100bps since September[1] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts in 2025, with the median policy rate projected at [3.75, 4.00]%[3] - The FOMC's statement suggests a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, with a focus on the "extent and timing" of adjustments[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was raised from 2.2% to 2.5%, indicating increased inflation risks[4] - The GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 was adjusted from 2.0% to 2.1%, while the 2027 forecast was lowered from 2.0% to 1.9%[4] - The long-term policy rate expectation was increased from 2.9% to 3.0%, suggesting limited future rate cut potential[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, traders anticipated an average of 1.3 rate cuts (33bps) in 2025, reflecting a cautious market sentiment[5] - The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields rose by 12bps and 11bps, respectively, reaching 4.523% and 4.369%[5] - The US dollar index surpassed 108.2, reaching its highest level since November 2022, while both the stock market and gold prices declined[5] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of inflation rebounding if the Fed initiates rate cuts too early, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis in the financial system[8] - The tightening narrative may reach its peak in early 2025, with potential recession fears influencing future monetary policy decisions[6] - The impact of Trump's policies on inflation and employment remains uncertain, with some FOMC members incorporating these factors into their economic forecasts[5]