美联储2024年11月议息会议解读：“谨慎”开新局

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on December 18, 2024, aligning with market expectations[6] - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 indicate only two rate cuts, with the median policy rate forecast raised from 3.4% to 3.9%[11] - The long-term policy rate was also revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%[18] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 2.1% and the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.3%[18] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 2.5%[18] - Powell emphasized that the current policy rate of 4.3% is still restrictive, but caution is needed as it approaches neutral levels[7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points to 4.5%, while major U.S. stock indices fell significantly[7] - The dollar index increased to above 108, and gold prices dropped below $2,600 per ounce[7] - Market sentiment is expected to temporarily reflect "tightening fears" in early 2025, with potential adjustments in bond yields and stock market pressures[34] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected weakness in U.S. employment, higher-than-expected economic growth, and rising financial risks[35] - Powell noted that the labor market is currently weaker than pre-pandemic levels, indicating a gradual cooling trend[26] - The Fed's cautious approach suggests that future rate cuts will depend on sustained economic indicators and inflation trends[31]