平安观联储系列（十）：12月FOMC点评—放缓降息时刻来临，警惕近期市场波动

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.50%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.50% with a 25 basis points cut, aligning with market expectations, but the overall tone was more hawkish than anticipated, leading to aggressive adjustments in future rate cut expectations [3][9][10] - Economic growth remains resilient, with manufacturing PMI rising for three consecutive months and a projected GDP growth rate of 3.3% for Q4, indicating a strong economic backdrop [3][9] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025, reflecting a shift in expectations compared to previous forecasts [3][9][10] Economic Indicators - GDP growth forecast for 2024 was revised up from 2.0% to 2.5%, while the 2025 forecast was slightly adjusted from 2.0% to 2.1% [9][10] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, indicating heightened inflation risks [9][10] - Unemployment rate projections for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively, suggesting a resilient labor market [9][10] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 dropping by 3.56%, 2.58%, and 2.95% respectively [3][12] - The VIX index surged from 15.87 to 27.62, indicating increased market volatility in response to the Fed's announcements [3][12] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.23% to 108.3, reflecting a stronger dollar amidst changing interest rate expectations [3][12] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with potential for re-inflation and gradual rate cuts, particularly in the first half of the year [3][15] - The stock market is expected to experience short-term volatility but may trend positively in the medium term, driven by earnings growth, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [3][15] - The bond market may present trading opportunities in the short term, with long-term rates expected to rise due to increased issuance and inflationary pressures from policy changes [3][16]