东方战略周观察：近期地缘动态观察与展望

Geopolitical Developments - The Assad family's rule in Syria appears to be ending within 10 days, allowing Israel to advance in the Golan Heights[3] - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol faced a second impeachment on December 14, following a failed martial law attempt on December 3, creating political uncertainty in Northeast Asia[3] - The upcoming inauguration of Trump in January 2025 adds further uncertainty to the Northeast Asian situation and raises concerns about changes in the Middle East[3] Middle East Dynamics - Israel is expected to benefit strategically from the current geopolitical shifts, with Trump’s return likely providing an opportunity to legitimize military victories[15] - Recent polls indicate that Netanyahu's Likud party would only secure 25 seats in a new election, below the 60-seat majority needed, suggesting continued expansionist policies[16] - The fall of the Assad government may not create a power vacuum, as the "Sham Liberation Organization" could stabilize the situation in Syria[17] Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The expectation is that the Russia-Ukraine situation may escalate initially after Trump takes office, with potential for negotiations only after stabilizing the front lines[22] - The core issue hindering negotiations is the unilateral changes in the battlefield, complicating the prospects for peace talks[22] - Trump may leverage the threat of halting all aid to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia once the front lines are stabilized[22] Risk Factors - There is a risk of unexpected changes in the Syrian situation leading to increased volatility in the Middle East[4]