Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on December 18, 2024, aligning with market expectations[4] - The Fed's long-term policy rate was revised up to 3.0%, with the median forecast for the 2025 policy rate increased from 3.4% to 3.9%[17] - The Fed indicated that it may only lower rates twice in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy[9] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed upgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast from 2.0% to 2.1% and the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.3%[17] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 was revised up by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[17] - Powell emphasized that the current policy rate of 4.3% is still restrictive, but caution is needed as rates approach neutral levels[5] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points to 4.5%, while major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines[23] - The dollar index surged above 108, and gold prices fell below $2,600 per ounce, reflecting market anxiety over tightening conditions[23] - The market is expected to temporarily trade on "tightening fears" in early 2025, with potential adjustments in response to upcoming economic data[33] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected weakness in the U.S. labor market, higher-than-expected inflation, and rising financial risks[34] - Powell noted that the Fed is closely monitoring the labor market and inflation trends, which could influence future rate decisions[25] - The potential impact of new fiscal policies under the incoming administration remains uncertain and could affect economic forecasts[26]
美联储2024年11月议息会议解读
Ping An Securities·2024-12-19 02:45