美联储12月议息会议点评：降息前景生变

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The updated dot plot indicates a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2025 from 100 basis points to 50 basis points, with terminal rates projected at 3.0%[1] - The Fed's economic forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 were raised to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, while unemployment rate forecasts were lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 3.0%, Nasdaq down 3.6%, and Dow Jones down 2.6%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points to 4.52%, while the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.2% to 108.3[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 shifted significantly, with the probability of one cut dropping from 90% to 70%, and the likelihood of two cuts falling below 30%[1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's adjustments indicate a belief in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but concerns about inflation have intensified[1] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2024-2026 was raised, reflecting increased inflationary pressures, with 2024 now projected at 2.8%[1] - The Fed's stance suggests a cautious approach to future rate adjustments, emphasizing data dependency and uncertainty in economic conditions[1]