海外地产2025年度投资策略：政策持续宽松，供需结构优化

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the real estate industry, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [1][6] Core Views - The real estate industry is expected to benefit from a loose internal and external environment in 2025, with domestic policy relaxation and potential US interest rate cuts improving liquidity and financing conditions [2][6] - The supply-demand structure of the industry is expected to optimize, with reduced new housing supply due to financial constraints on private developers and government land reserves, while policy relaxation and interest rate cuts are expected to release demand [2][6] - Leading state-owned developers are expected to benefit from policy relaxation, with improved profit margins and stable dividends due to their focus on core cities and strong product premium capabilities [3][6] - The property management sector is expected to see stable dividend growth and steady net profit growth, with leading companies like CR Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service recommended for their strong cash positions and shareholder returns [3][6] - Hong Kong local stocks are expected to maintain stable dividend yields in 2025, with companies like CK Infrastructure and Swire Properties benefiting from diversified business layouts and low financial leverage [4][6] Key Company Recommendations - Beike: Recommended as a leading real estate transaction service platform benefiting from increased housing transaction volume and market share [3][6] - CR Land, COLI, Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and Poly Property Group: Recommended for their financial security, high-quality land reserves, and stable performance and dividends [3][6] - CR Mixc Lifestyle: Recommended as a leading commercial management company expected to benefit from improved consumer demand and operational indicators in 2025 [3][6] - Greentown Service, Poly Property Services, China Overseas Property Services, and Yuexiu Services: Recommended for their stable and increasing dividends and steady net profit growth [3][6] - CK Infrastructure, Swire Properties, and Kerry Properties: Recommended for their stable dividend income and low financial leverage [4][6] Industry Trends and Data - Policy-driven market recovery: Historical data shows that policy relaxation has consistently led to a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in housing sales and developer performance [33][34] - Sales data improvement: In 2024, sales data for major listed companies showed a gradual improvement, particularly after policy adjustments in September and October, with a 19.9% year-on-year increase in sales area in November [34][38] - Land acquisition and supply: State-owned developers like Poly Development, CR Land, and Greentown China are leading in land acquisition, with their land reserves concentrated in core first and second-tier cities [53][54] - Debt restructuring for private developers: Private developers like Sunac and CIFI are focusing on debt restructuring, with significant progress in reducing debt through bond conversions and asset sales [59][62] Property Management Sector - Fund holdings: In 2024, public funds have concentrated their holdings in leading property management companies like CR Mixc Lifestyle, Poly Property Services, and China Overseas Property Services, which offer stable dividends and steady profit growth [71][72] - Consumer demand recovery: With the promotion of consumption policies in 2025, leading commercial management companies are expected to benefit from improved rental income and asset value [72][73] - Receivables management: Property management companies are expected to see improved collection rates in 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer confidence and government spending [78][79] Hong Kong Local Stocks - Policy-driven performance: Hong Kong local stocks have shown strong performance in response to policy changes, such as the "spicy withdrawal" policy in February 2024 and the "stabilization" policy in September 2024 [109][110] - Dividend stability: Hong Kong local stocks are expected to maintain stable dividend yields in 2025, supported by diversified business layouts and low financial leverage [110][111] - Non-development business contributions: In 2025, non-development businesses, particularly investment properties, are expected to remain the main contributors to profits and cash flow for Hong Kong local companies [117][118]