农林牧渔行业点评报告:白鸡养殖盈利改善,黄羽种鸡存栏低位或支撑价格
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-12-19 06:30

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The profitability of white feather chicken farming has improved due to rising prices and declining costs, with the average sales price in November 2024 reaching 7.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg month-on-month, while the farming profit improved by 0.79 yuan/chicken to -1.50 yuan/chicken [6][18] - The supply of white feather meat chickens is expected to be lower in Q4 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, which, combined with seasonal demand increases, supports the potential for price increases [21] - The yellow feather chicken market is experiencing price declines due to weak demand and concentrated selling, but low parent stock levels may support future prices [33] - Egg prices are under pressure due to weak demand, although an increase in egg-laying hens may drive up supply [39] Summary by Sections 1. White Feather Chicken - The average sales price for white feather meat chickens in November 2024 was 7.67 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.23 yuan/kg, and the profit margin improved to -1.50 yuan/chicken, up by 0.79 yuan/chicken [6][18] - The total stock of white feather parent chickens was 3,873.59 million sets, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month, with the in-production stock down by 3.8% [21] 2. Yellow Feather Chicken - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feather chickens in November was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 8.03% month-on-month, with parent chicken stock at 2,134.76 million sets, a decrease of 0.8% [33] 3. Egg Production - The average price of egg-laying hens was 4.10 yuan/chicken, up 7.89% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs was 8.60 yuan/kg, down 8.12% month-on-month [39] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In November, the sales volume of white feather chicken chicks increased to 572.97 million, with a sales price of 5.25 yuan/chick, up 0.39 yuan/chick month-on-month [41] - The sales volume of yellow feather chickens decreased to 1.11 billion, with a sales price of 12.74 yuan/kg, down 4.43% month-on-month [54]