2025年房地产行业年度策略报告：“止跌回稳”，拐点渐近

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a trend of "stabilization after decline," indicating positive changes in both volume and price in the real estate market [1]. - The core logic of the real estate market is shifting towards stabilization, with expectations of recovery in sales and prices [1][3]. - The report outlines potential paths for stabilization, including continued policy support and improvements in residents' financial conditions [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Positive Changes in Volume and Price - Sales have shown a greater magnitude and sustainability compared to previous periods, particularly in core cities [21]. - Nationally, the year-on-year decline in sales has significantly narrowed, with October showing a sales area of 0.76 billion square meters, down only 1.6% year-on-year [22]. - The sales data from the top 100 real estate companies turned positive in October, marking a 5.4% increase year-on-year [22]. Section 2: "Stabilization after Decline" as Core Logic - The report reviews past core logic in the real estate sector and suggests that the current stabilization does not face insurmountable obstacles [1][3]. Section 3: More Proactive Macroeconomic Policies - Policies such as relaxed purchase restrictions and mortgage rate adjustments are being implemented to support the market [1][3]. - The government is expected to enhance fiscal policies, including the acquisition of idle land and stock housing [1][3]. Section 4: Outlook for 2025 and Mid- to Long-Term Fundamentals - The report anticipates that sales volumes for new and second-hand homes may stabilize, with a shift towards existing homes [1][3]. - It predicts that the overall sales volume will remain flat in 2025, with a potential 5.8% year-on-year decline in new home sales if the proportion of second-hand transactions increases to 47% [1][3]. Section 5: Investment Directions Under Stabilization - The report suggests that quality real estate companies are likely to see improved sales elasticity and market share [1][3]. - Policies aimed at improving cash flow for companies and enhancing asset-liability ratios are expected to create investment opportunities [1][3].