食品饮料周专题：啤酒韧性仍在，依然是攻守兼备主线

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" and maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The beer sector remains a resilient mainline, positioned favorably in the context of scene recovery. The latest annual strategy report anticipates a shift in economic growth focus from external demand to internal demand by 2025, with beer benefiting from policy support for the restaurant sector, which accounts for 40% of its sales [13][14] - The beer segment is expected to be a balanced offensive and defensive line in 2025, with short-term support from policies aiding faster recovery in restaurant channels, stabilizing income expectations, and gradual recovery in distribution channels [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of Qingdao Beer’s operational improvements as an alpha opportunity, with expectations for better performance following the board's restructuring and a more aggressive marketing strategy [15] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic: Beer Resilience - The beer sector ranks high in the recovery of consumption scenes, with expectations for significant benefits from policy support aimed at the restaurant industry [13] - The beer market is projected to experience a balanced approach in 2025, with both offensive and defensive characteristics, driven by cyclical trends and improved profit margins for leading brands [14] Core Recommendations - The food and beverage sector is expected to follow a two-step rhythm, focusing on high-certainty performance and steadily increasing dividend rates for industry leaders. Key recommendations include: - For liquor, focus on strong brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which can withstand economic cycles, alongside brands like Jinsiyuan and Shanxi Fenjiu that are expected to gain market share [17] - For beer, Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations due to their potential for recovery and improved dividend rates [17] - In the food sector, recommendations include leading companies in dairy, restaurant supply chains, and snacks, such as Yili and New Dairy [17] Market Review and Valuation Tracking - As of December 13, 2024, the food and beverage index has decreased by 4.84% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.48 percentage points. However, in the week of December 9-13, 2024, the index rose by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.02 percentage points [20] - The beer sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.20%, indicating a positive trend compared to other sub-sectors [20] Macro and Industry Key Data Tracking - In November 2024, the CPI increased by 0.2%, with food and beverage CPI rising by 0.9%. The PPI decreased by 2.5% during the same period [35] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in October 2024, with restaurant income increasing by 3.2% [35]