航空机场高速行业2025年度投资策略：周期的韵脚

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation, airport, and highway industries, with a focus on the aviation sector [10] Core Views - The aviation industry is at the cusp of a cyclical opportunity, with supply constraints and demand recovery signaling a potential reversal [6][7] - Airline stocks have historically outperformed during bull markets, with cumulative absolute returns ranking first in the market since 2007 [6][92] - The current valuation of most airline companies is at historically attractive levels, with single-aircraft market capitalization in the top 50th percentile [7][93] - The airport sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, driven by the resumption of international passenger traffic and a rebound in consumer spending power [7][8] - The highway sector is poised for valuation uplift due to its "perpetual" business model and the potential extension of toll collection periods [8] Aviation Sector Historical Performance - Airline stocks have demonstrated strong cyclicality, with demand cycles being the primary driver of performance [6][92] - Since 2007, the aviation sector has experienced three significant periods of outperformance, all driven by demand improvements [6][92][100] - The top three airlines (China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China) have historically led the market in cumulative absolute returns during bull markets [98][99] Current Supply and Demand Dynamics - By the end of 2024, the industry's supply is nearly fully utilized, with aircraft utilization rates returning to 2019 levels [6][92] - Aircraft deliveries are constrained by global supply chain issues, with an average annual supply growth rate of only 2% expected from 2024 to 2026 [6][92] - The industry is expected to benefit from economic stimulus policies and improved industry coordination, leading to a gradual recovery in demand [7][93] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends A-share private airlines (Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Express Airlines) and the three major Hong Kong-listed airlines as top picks [7][93] - If the PMI index shows a significant reversal, the report suggests investing in the A-share listed major airlines for higher elasticity [7][93] Airport Sector Business Model and Recovery - Airports are long-duration assets, with their profitability and valuation closely tied to the recovery of high-end consumption and economic growth [7][8] - The recovery of international passenger traffic is accelerating, which is expected to alleviate profit pressures and drive a return to mean performance [7][8] - As consumer spending power bottoms out, airport duty-free and commercial per-passenger spending are expected to rise steadily, releasing profit elasticity [7][8] Highway Sector Valuation and Business Model - The highway sector's "perpetual" business model and stable cash flows make it attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [8] - The current 30-year toll collection period is insufficient to cover local government debt, suggesting a potential extension of toll collection periods, which could lead to valuation uplift [8] - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable growth and dividends, such as China Merchants Expressway, Jiangsu Expressway, Guangdong Expressway, and Anhui Expressway [8] Key Data and Metrics - The aviation sector's capacity utilization has nearly reached full capacity, with aircraft utilization rates returning to 2019 levels by 2024 [92][144] - The highway sector's profitability is expected to remain stable, with dividend yields providing additional returns [8] - The airport sector's recovery is closely tied to the resumption of international passenger traffic and the rebound in consumer spending power [7][8]