客车12月月报：11月国内公交交付爆发，翘尾效应初现
Soochow Securities·2024-12-19 07:03

Investment Rating - The report recommends the bus sector, specifically favoring Yutong and King Long, maintaining a "Buy" rating for both companies [6][3]. Core Viewpoints - The driving factors for the current bus cycle include China's automotive manufacturing industry becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China's within 3-5 years [3]. - The domestic price war in the bus market has ended, which is expected to enhance profitability rather than hinder it, supported by a recovery in tourism and public transport demand [5][3]. - The report anticipates that the bus sector can achieve new profit highs, driven by the absence of price wars, a concentrated market structure, and decreasing lithium carbonate costs [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In November 2024, China's bus industry produced 48,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a month-on-month increase of 9%. The wholesale volume was 46,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [9][11]. - The terminal sales for buses reached 45,000 units in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month-on-month increase of 5% [16]. Company Performance - Yutong's November sales were 3,736 units, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. The company is preparing for a year-end surge in demand [49]. - King Long's November sales reached 5,044 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [53]. Market Structure - The domestic bus market is characterized by a fragmented structure with several local enterprises, while Yutong and King Long are the leading players. In November, Yutong held an 18% market share in bus sales, while King Long had a 32% share [34]. - The report highlights that the export market is dominated by leading companies, with Yutong and King Long maintaining significant shares in both bus and coach exports [44].