保险Ⅱ行业：保险资金权益配置：聚焦OCI和长股投，跨越低利率周期

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, particularly focusing on the potential for increased equity allocation by insurance funds to navigate the low-interest-rate environment [2] Core Views - Insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation to equity assets, particularly high-dividend stocks and long-term equity investments, to enhance portfolio returns and mitigate the impact of declining fixed-income yields [2] - The report highlights the necessity of equity investments for insurance funds, given the long-term higher returns compared to fixed-income assets, both domestically and internationally [2] - The current equity allocation in the insurance industry (20.9% as of 24Q3) still has room to grow, with a regulatory cap of 25% for companies with a solvency adequacy ratio between 150% and 200% [2] Background: Declining Long-Term Interest Rates and Asset Shortage - Long-term interest rates have been declining, leading to lower returns on fixed-income assets, which are the largest component of insurance fund portfolios [2] - Non-standard assets, which previously offered higher returns, are maturing, and their supply is decreasing, further pressuring insurance funds to find alternative investments [2] - The bond allocation in the insurance industry has reached a relatively high level (45.4% in 2023), and further increases may not be necessary, especially as the duration gap has narrowed [2] - There is significant room for increasing equity asset allocation, with the current equity allocation at 20.9% compared to the regulatory cap of 25% [2] Necessity and Direction of Equity Allocation - Equity assets have historically provided higher long-term returns compared to fixed-income assets, making them essential for improving portfolio returns [2] - The future direction of equity allocation will focus on high-dividend stocks and long-term equity investments, which offer stable income and strategic synergies [2] - High-dividend stocks, when classified under the OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) account, provide stable dividend income without causing volatility in the profit and loss statement [2] - Long-term equity investments, despite their lower current allocation (e.g., 4.5% for China Life, 4% for Ping An), offer higher returns over the long term and are expected to see increased allocation [2] High-Dividend Asset Allocation Scale - Assuming a compound growth rate of 11% for insurance fund utilization from 2023 to 2026, the high-dividend investment scale is projected to reach between 1.16 to 1.5 trillion yuan by 2026 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance (A/H), China Life Insurance (A/H), China Taiping (H), Ping An Insurance (A/H), China P&C Insurance (H), New China Life Insurance (A/H), and AIA Group (H) [2] Key Data and Trends - The bond allocation in the insurance industry increased from 34.6% in 2017 to 45.4% in 2023, while non-standard assets decreased from 40.2% to 32.7% over the same period [2] - The net investment yield for listed insurers has been declining, with China Life dropping from 4.6% in 2017 to 3.7% in 2023, and Ping An from 5.8% to 4.2% [2] - The average investment yield for China Pacific Insurance's equity assets from 2013 to 2022 was 7.3%, higher than fixed-income assets (5.1%) and cash (1.6%) [2]