煤炭行业2025年策略：六年长虹，七年可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining sector, specifically recommending an "Increase" for the CSI 300 index [2]. Core Insights - The coal sector has experienced a valuation uplift, transitioning from a demand-driven to a supply-driven logic since the supply-side reforms in 2016, leading to a reversal in industry profitability [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that the capital market's pricing mechanism is shifting from focusing solely on net profit to valuing shareholder returns and free cash flow, indicating a potential for renewed valuation increases in the coal sector [2][16]. - The report forecasts that the average price of thermal coal (Q5500) will range between 750 to 900 RMB/ton in 2025, with a central tendency around 830 to 850 RMB/ton [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The coal sector has seen a significant price recovery, with the market performance driven by a higher-than-expected coal price floor rather than expectations of a price surge [16]. - The report notes that the coal industry has recorded five consecutive years of positive returns despite a general decline in profitability due to lower coal prices [16]. - The report highlights the disparity in coal production costs across regions, with resource tax rates being adjusted upwards in areas like Shanxi and Xinjiang [2]. 2. Thermal Coal Outlook - The report anticipates a 5 million ton increase in thermal coal supply in 2024, with a total supply of approximately 3.34 billion tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - It projects a slight decline in thermal coal imports in 2025, estimating around 38 million tons, a decrease of 5% compared to previous years [2]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to improve in 2025, particularly driven by the chemical sector, which is projected to maintain high growth [2]. 3. Coking Coal Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery in coking coal production to 483 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.3% from 2024, primarily due to recovery in Shanxi [5]. - It notes that the overall supply-demand situation for coking coal is currently loose, with prices hitting a two-year low [5]. - The report suggests that the market dynamics for coking coal may shift towards stronger demand expectations as policies evolve [5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to benefit from stable cash flows and high dividend yields [6]. - It highlights the importance of companies that can leverage marginal changes or growth potential, particularly those involved in mergers or resource optimization [6]. - The report also emphasizes the potential for companies like Qinfa to enhance their growth prospects through international expansion, particularly in Indonesia [6].