中观高频景气图谱（2024.12）：社服、家电、零售行业景气回暖

Group 1 - The report indicates a divergence in the economic climate between upstream resource industries and midstream manufacturing as of mid-December 2024, with the oil and petrochemical sectors showing continuous improvement while basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals are experiencing a downturn [5] - In the downstream consumer sector, the social services, home appliances, and retail industries are on an upward trend, while light manufacturing is declining; in essential consumption, textiles and apparel are improving, but agriculture, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors are declining [5] - Supportive service industries and the financial sector are also seeing an upward trend, particularly in the environmental protection and banking sectors, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, specifically computers, is experiencing a downturn [5] Group 2 - The report tracks excess returns in the basic chemical industry, correlating them with various commodity prices such as fuel oil, methanol, and PVC, indicating a complex relationship between these variables [7][9][10] - The steel industry shows a correlation between excess returns and operational rates of iron ore and steel production, with various leading and lagging indicators analyzed [19][21][24] - The non-ferrous metals sector's excess returns are tracked against the LME base metals index and copper prices, highlighting the industry's sensitivity to global commodity price fluctuations [31][32][33] Group 3 - The construction materials sector's excess returns are linked to the cement price index and glass settlement prices, indicating a direct relationship with construction activity [40][43][45] - The coal industry shows excess returns correlated with thermal coal prices and coking coal prices, reflecting the industry's performance against energy market trends [48][51][53] - The oil and petrochemical sector's excess returns are analyzed in relation to gasoline and diesel wholesale prices, as well as capacity utilization rates, demonstrating the impact of energy prices on profitability [54][59][62] Group 4 - The electric equipment industry tracks excess returns against the prices of photovoltaic components and polysilicon, indicating a strong relationship with renewable energy market dynamics [73][74][78] - The automotive sector's excess returns are correlated with tire production rates and average daily sales of passenger vehicles, reflecting consumer demand trends [84][88] - The machinery equipment sector's excess returns are analyzed against the BPI (Baltic Dry Index) and machinery price indices, showing the industry's responsiveness to global shipping and equipment costs [92][96][98] Group 5 - The transportation sector's excess returns are linked to the CDFI (Comprehensive Dry Freight Index) and PDCI (Port Container Index), indicating the impact of freight rates on industry performance [104][106] - The electronics sector tracks excess returns against the Zhongguancun electronic product price index and DXI index, reflecting the industry's sensitivity to technology pricing trends [108][111] - The light manufacturing sector's excess returns are correlated with real estate transaction volumes and TDI prices, indicating the influence of housing market dynamics on manufacturing performance [117][119]