Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1][14]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, indicating a gradual rebound in consumer demand [1]. - The report highlights a clear trend towards high cost-performance consumption, with essential goods showing steady growth while optional goods exhibit varied performance [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies on consumer behavior, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture, which have seen significant sales growth due to supportive measures [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 353,564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1]. - Online retail sales reached 108,928 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year, indicating a strong shift towards online shopping [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Essential consumption categories such as food and daily necessities showed robust growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 2.2%, respectively [1]. - Optional consumption categories displayed mixed results, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment experiencing a notable increase of 20.5% year-on-year [2]. Retail Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, retail sales in urban areas grew by 3.2%, while rural areas saw a growth of 4.4% [1]. - The report notes that online consumption growth outpaced offline, with online sales accounting for 26.7% of total retail sales [7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-performing segments within the retail industry and companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences towards cost-effective products [2][6].
商贸零售行业:11月社零环比降速,政策支持品类表现突出
Dongxing Securities·2024-12-19 08:56