Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.50%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.50% with a 25 basis points cut, aligning with market expectations[3] - The dot plot indicates a potential reduction of 50 basis points in 2024, with expectations of two rate cuts, reflecting a more hawkish stance compared to previous forecasts[3] - Economic growth forecasts were revised upward, with 2024 GDP growth adjusted from 2.0% to 2.5%[8] Inflation and Employment Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was raised to 2.4%, indicating concerns about potential inflation rebound[8] - The unemployment rate projections for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively, suggesting a resilient labor market[13] - Powell emphasized that inflation remains sticky and will be a key focus in 2025, indicating a shift in the Fed's risk balance towards inflation[9] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish statements, major U.S. stock indices fell significantly, with the Nasdaq down 3.56%, the Dow down 2.58%, and the S&P 500 down 2.95%[13] - The VIX index surged from 15.87 to 27.62, indicating increased market volatility in response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish tone[13] - The dollar index rose by 1.23% to 108.3, reflecting a stronger dollar amid changing interest rate expectations[13] Future Projections - The market anticipates a return to a 4.5%-4.75% rate range by January 2025, with a potential 25 basis points cut in June 2025[20] - The outlook for U.S. equities remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors as key drivers for growth amid ongoing economic adjustments[14] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with short-term trading opportunities arising from recent interest rate movements[15]
平安观联储系列（十）：12月FOMC点评：放缓降息时刻来临，警惕近期市场波动
Ping An Securities·2024-12-19 08:45