东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241219

Group 1: Electronic Industry Investment Outlook - The electronic industry is expected to perform actively in 2024, with the industry index (CITIC) projected to rise by 17.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by industry recovery and AI [2][3] - Key areas of innovation include AI glasses, which are in a developmental phase and expected to reach a market size peak by 2035, and high-speed copper connections, which are anticipated to see global shipments reach 20 million by 2027 [2][3] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is identified as a critical chip for AI computing demand, with strong market demand despite being dominated by a few international giants [3] Group 2: Bond Market Investment Outlook - The bond market is expected to perform strongly in 2024, with significant declines in yield for both government and corporate bonds, and a notable increase in the supply of government bonds [2][3] - Long-term interest rates are projected to trend downward, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize between 1.7% and 2.0% [2][3] - Investment strategies include focusing on mid-term government bonds to reduce portfolio volatility and selecting high-rated corporate bonds for yield enhancement [2][3] Group 3: Coal Industry Investment Outlook - The coal sector has shown a cumulative increase of 8.62% from early 2024 to December 6, 2024, with stable profitability expected due to long-term contracts stabilizing coal prices [26][27] - Despite challenges from renewable energy, coal remains a primary power source, with demand expected to rise as coal-fired power generation continues to dominate [26][27] - The coal sector's valuation is still low, with a PE ratio of 11.75, indicating potential for value appreciation, especially with increasing cash dividends [27][28] Group 4: Transportation Industry Insights - In November, domestic airlines faced a decline in capacity due to seasonal demand drops, with a 10.4% decrease in capacity compared to October [29][32] - Passenger load factors varied significantly among airlines, with some prioritizing load factors over ticket prices, leading to differing performance outcomes [31][33] - International routes also saw a decline in capacity, but some airlines reported improved load factors compared to previous years, indicating a mixed recovery [34][35] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized boosting consumption as a key task, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and investment efficiency [36][39] - Specific measures include increasing basic pensions and promoting new consumption models, which are expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector [39][40] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to recover alongside overall consumption growth, particularly in segments closely tied to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments [40][41]