可选消费行业2025年度策略：关注需求的质变，及全球制造业重构

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the transformation of demand and the restructuring of global manufacturing as key themes for the consumer discretionary sector strategy for 2025 [2] - The report identifies several investment themes for 2025, including the recovery of domestic demand supported by policy measures, particularly in the home appliance sector [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly the "old-for-new" appliance replacement program, which has shown strong performance since Q3 2024 [3][45] - The report highlights that major appliances are expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, recommending companies such as Midea Group, Haier, Gree Electric, and Hisense [3] Performance Review - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 31% in stock prices year-to-date, significantly outperforming major indices [7] - The white goods segment has shown robust revenue and profit growth, while the black goods segment has faced profit pressures due to rising panel prices [12] - The pet economy has also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of 33% in stock prices, indicating its resilience against economic cycles [7] Small Appliances - The small kitchen appliance market has faced challenges, with a 4% decline in retail sales for the first nine months of 2024, although cleaning appliances have shown growth [15] - Companies like Roborock and Ecovacs have performed well, with stock price increases of 16% and 26% respectively [15] Two-Wheelers - The motorcycle segment is experiencing high demand both domestically and internationally, with significant revenue growth expected [23] - The electric two-wheeler market is under pressure due to new regulations and inventory adjustments, but profit margins are improving [23] Pet Industry - The pet industry in China is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, driven by strong domestic consumption [25] - Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong have reported significant sales growth, outperforming the industry average [25] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown mixed results, with manufacturing performance being strong while brand consumption remains under pressure [30] - The report notes that the valuation of sports brands is at a low point compared to the past five years, indicating potential investment opportunities [30]