美联储12月鹰派降息25BP，2025年降息预期暗示放缓

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50% marks the third consecutive rate cut, totaling a 100 basis point reduction this year [2] - Economic forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with the unemployment rate expected to be 4.2% in 2024, down from previous estimates of 4.4% [2] - Inflation expectations have also been revised, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.8% for 2024, an increase from the prior estimate of 2.6% [2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 2.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.0% [2] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The unemployment rate projections for 2024 to 2026 are 4.2%, 4.3%, and 4.3% respectively, showing a slight improvement from earlier estimates [2] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the same period are now 2.8%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, indicating a rising inflation outlook [2] - The GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.5% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.0% [2] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The November CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.7%, matching expectations, while the PPI year-on-year rate was 3%, exceeding expectations [3] - Retail sales in December increased by 0.69% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.6%, and showed an 8% year-on-year growth [4] Future Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts in 2025 are expected to be more cautious, with only two cuts anticipated compared to the previous expectation of four [5] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 is now 3.9%, up from the earlier estimate of 3.4% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that gold will serve as a hedge against potential inflation acceleration in 2025, with a positive outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [6][8] - Beneficiary stocks in the gold sector include companies such as Yulong Co., Shanjin International, and Zhongjin Gold [8]