12月FOMC，连续降息或暂告一段落

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5% on December 19, 2024, with a vote of 11-1[2] - The dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, reflecting a more cautious approach to future rate adjustments[4] - Market expectations for cumulative rate cuts in 2025 decreased from 48 basis points to 33 basis points following the FOMC meeting[8] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 2.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates[5] - Core PCE inflation expectations for Q4 2025 were adjusted upward by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%[5] - The timeline for inflation returning to the 2% target has been pushed back to 2027, indicating concerns about persistent inflation[5] Labor Market and Inflation - Powell noted that the risks to the labor market have decreased, with the unemployment rate forecast for Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively[5] - The assessment of inflation risks shifted from "broadly balanced" to "tilted to the upside," reflecting growing concerns about inflationary pressures[5][10] - The Fed's long-term neutral interest rate was revised up to 3.0%, indicating a shift in monetary policy stance[4][17]