2024年12月FOMC会议点评：明年还有多少降息空间？

Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% during the December FOMC meeting[3] - The Fed's forecast for the rate cut space in 2024 has been narrowed from 100 basis points to 50 basis points, aligning with market expectations[3] - Powell indicated that the Fed is "close to or has reached" the point of slowing or pausing rate cuts, reflecting a more hawkish stance[15] Economic and Inflation Projections - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.5% from a previous estimate of 2.0%[12] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was adjusted to 2.4%, up from 2.3%[12] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was lowered to 4.2% from 4.4%[12] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.6%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively[5] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points to 4.5%, while the 2-year yield also increased by 10 basis points to 4.35%[5] - The dollar index closed at 108.3, reflecting a strong dollar post-meeting[5] Future Expectations - Market expectations indicate that rate cuts may pause in January, March, and May 2025, with a potential resumption in June[19] - The anticipated inflation risk under the Trump administration is considered manageable in the short term, with housing inflation showing signs of cooling[22] - The CPI forecast for 2024 is projected to average around 2.8%, with quarterly estimates of 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.9%, and 3.1%[23]