2024年11月经济数据点评：投资偏稳，消费高位回落

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, showing a slight recovery from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to November reached 465839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Social retail sales totaled 43763 billion yuan in November, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[29] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment showed a slight decline, while manufacturing investment remained stable[35] - The issuance of 1 trillion yuan in long-term bonds has been completed, with funds allocated to support key projects and new initiatives[22] - The central budget investment plan for next year is set at 100 billion yuan, alongside another 100 billion yuan for key construction projects[22] Consumer Behavior - Consumption has declined from last month's peak but remains better than the average growth rate in the third quarter[35] - Categories such as clothing, communication equipment, and traditional Chinese medicine saw negative growth, while automotive consumption rebounded[31] - Building materials consumption improved, turning from negative to positive growth[31] Policy Outlook - The government plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies next year, including fiscal stimulus and moderate monetary easing[38] - Continued support for the real estate sector is expected to stabilize investment and reduce the drag on fixed asset investment[38] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[39]