美联储FOMC会议点评：鹰派降息美元狂飙，一切可能刚刚开始

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) during its last FOMC meeting of the year, marking a total reduction of 100 bps for the year[2] - The Fed's statement shifted from a focus on labor market weakness and declining inflation to a more hawkish outlook, pushing the dollar index above 108[2] - The dot plot indicates that four members believe no further rate cuts are necessary, with the majority reducing the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 from 100 bps to 50 bps[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed significantly revised its economic growth and inflation expectations upward, while lowering unemployment rate forecasts for 2024 and 2025[2] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2024, Q4 2025, and Q4 2026 were raised by 0.2, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, 2.5%, and 2.2% respectively[2] - Powell expressed concerns about inflation being more persistent than previously expected, particularly due to slower-than-anticipated declines in rental prices[2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Powell's stance on the labor market shifted to a more neutral position, acknowledging a decrease in hiring rates but maintaining that the labor market remains robust[2] - The potential for significant downward pressure on unemployment rates exists if aggressive policies are implemented under the new administration, which could lead to upward pressure on wages[2] - The current labor participation rate is high, indicating limited room for supply increases, which could exacerbate wage inflation if immigration controls are tightened[2] Group 4: Global Economic Context - Other developed economies are expected to resort to more aggressive monetary easing due to weak domestic demand and limited fiscal stimulus[2] - The dollar index is projected to rise sharply, potentially reaching 110-115 by the end of 2025, which could lead to depreciation pressures on major non-dollar currencies, including the Chinese yuan[2] - Risks include the possibility that the Fed's rate cuts may occur at a slower pace than anticipated, impacting global financial conditions[2]