烧灯续昼：2025年海外宏观展望

Economic Growth Outlook - In 2025, the US economy is expected to experience moderate growth, with household consumption growth slowing down, while potential boosts may come from corporate capital expenditure and real estate improvements[1] - The baseline scenario anticipates the US CPI to range between 2.3% and 3.1% in 2025, with core CPI expected to be between 2.4% and 3.5%[1] - The employment market is projected to face downward pressure, posing risks to economic expectations[1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The trend of disinflation is expected to be persistent, with potential volatility in inflation narratives throughout the year[1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate a rate cut in Q1 2025, with the remaining year potentially underestimating the space for further cuts[1] - By the end of 2025, nominal and core CPI are expected to stabilize around 2.5% to 3%[1] Market Projections - The US dollar is expected to transition from a high-level fluctuation to a downward cycle, with a target of 101 for the dollar index by the end of 2025[1] - Long-term US Treasury yields are projected to decline to around 1.3% by the end of 2025, with a target range for overall yields set between 3.3% and 3.7%[1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to have a potential positive return of 3% if risk premiums recover moderately, while the Nasdaq 100 could see a 10% positive return under similar conditions[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Economic uncertainties include the unpredictability of the economic fundamentals, the impact of the Trump administration's decisions, and geopolitical tensions affecting risk appetite and commodity prices[1]