2025年石化化工行业投资策略：化工景气有望改善，资源行业盈利上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the petrochemical industry [2][6]. Core Views - The petrochemical industry is expected to improve in 2025 due to macroeconomic recovery, policy support, and supply-side optimization, leading to a potential rebound in chemical product demand [21][22]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, specifically recommending investments in oil, natural gas, potash, refrigerants, phosphorus chemicals, oil and fat chemicals, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In 2024, the chemical PPI showed a year-on-year decline due to weak market demand and oversupply, with over 60% of chemical listed companies reporting revenue growth, but less than half achieving positive net profit growth [2][28]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the chemical industry driven by new monetary policies and a gradual recovery in downstream demand, alongside a decrease in raw material costs [2][28]. 2. Key Sector Analysis Oil - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel and WTI prices between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2025, with recommendations for investments in China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [2][3]. Natural Gas - Expected natural gas consumption in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 450 billion cubic meters, with significant growth potential in urban heating, industrial use, and gas-fired power generation [2][3]. Potash - The global potash market is anticipated to rebound due to a replenishment cycle and price recovery driven by supply constraints from major producers [2][3]. Refrigerants - The report sees a positive outlook for refrigerants like R22 and R32, driven by tightening long-term quotas and increased production in the air conditioning sector, recommending companies with strong infrastructure and leading quotas [2][3]. Phosphorus Chemicals - The phosphorus market is expected to maintain a tight balance due to limited supply growth and increasing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][3]. Oil and Fat Chemicals - The palm oil market is entering an upward cycle due to supply constraints and increased consumption driven by biofuel mandates in Indonesia, with recommendations for companies with cost advantages in oil and fat chemicals [2][3]. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The SAF market is projected to double in demand to 2 million tons by 2025, driven by regulatory mandates in the EU, with recommendations for domestic biodiesel leaders involved in SAF [2][3].