2025年度钢铁行业策略报告：蓄势待发，盈利+估值双底形成

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Perform" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is in a phase of reduction in production, with policies for controlling crude steel output becoming clearer and expectations for production control increasing [4][31] - Domestic economic growth is expected to support steel demand, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments likely to stabilize [5][93] - The report suggests that the steel industry has a foundation for rebound, with five main investment opportunities identified [6][30] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The steel industry is currently in a reduction phase, with crude steel apparent consumption declining to 750 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% as of October 2024 [16][31] - Crude steel production reached 850 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year, indicating a need for further production constraints [31][49] Demand Side - Domestic economic conditions are improving, contributing to increased demand for steel in manufacturing and infrastructure projects [5][93] - Steel exports are expected to stabilize, with cumulative exports reaching 91.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [16][64] Raw Material Side - Prices for raw materials are under pressure, with iron ore prices remaining relatively strong despite a high inventory level at ports [109][120] - The report indicates that the overall support from raw materials for steel prices is weakening, leading to a low inventory strategy among steel mills [109][110] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies five main investment lines: 1. Companies with optimized product structures and stable high dividends, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [6][30] 2. Companies with high technical or cost barriers, such as CITIC Special Steel [6][30] 3. Companies with significant performance elasticity, such as Fangda Special Steel [6][30] 4. Long-term undervalued state-owned enterprises, such as New Steel and Taiyuan Iron & Steel [6][30] 5. Companies in high-demand segments like high-temperature alloys, such as Steel Research High-Tech [6][30]