山西证券：研究早观点-20241220

Group 1: Market Trends - The report indicates that in October, the electricity consumption growth rate has slowed down, but there is optimism for subsequent demand recovery [4][7] - The overall electricity consumption from January to October reached 81,836 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4][5] - In October, the total electricity consumption was 7,742 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [4][5] Group 2: Power Generation Insights - From January to October, the cumulative power generation was 78,027 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [5] - In October, wind power generation saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 34.0%, while hydropower generation decreased by 14.9% [5][9] - The report highlights that the average utilization hours of power generation equipment slightly declined in October [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on power companies in the Yangtze River Delta region, such as Waneng Power and Sheneng Co., which have significant regional advantages [10] - It also recommends companies benefiting from the electricity market reform, such as Guodian Power and Huadian International, as well as those with stable performance and dividend logic like Changjiang Power [10] - The report emphasizes the potential of offshore wind projects in Fujian province, which are expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to improved wind resources and reduced construction costs [9][10] Group 4: Solar Industry Analysis - The report notes that prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and modules remained stable, while N-type battery prices decreased [18][19] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 39.0 CNY/kg, with a stable market outlook due to concentrated procurement before the Spring Festival [18] - The report highlights the importance of new technology directions in the solar sector, recommending companies like Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy [22]