氟化工：2025年制冷剂配额下发，行业高景气持续

Industry Investment Rating - Leading the Market (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The 2025 refrigerant quota has been announced, with second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) seeing a reduction in production quotas, while third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) have seen an increase, albeit smaller than previously indicated [2] - The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the quota system, with potential shortages and price increases anticipated in 2025 [2] - Downstream demand, particularly in the home air conditioning sector, has shown strong growth, with domestic sales and exports both increasing significantly [4] - The concentration of production capacity among a few key players is expected to influence market dynamics strongly [2] Summary by Sections Refrigerant Quota Changes - Second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) production quota for 2025 is 163,600 tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from 2024 [2] - R22 production quota is 149,100 tons, a decrease of 31,400 tons from 2024 [2] - R141b production quota is 9,157 tons, a decrease of 11,938 tons from 2024, with only one company, Sanmei, retaining the quota [2] - R142b production quota is 3,360 tons, a decrease of 5,995 tons from 2024 [2] - R123 and R124 production quotas are 1,738 tons and 250 tons respectively, both seeing reductions from 2024 [2] - Third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) production quota for 2025 is 791,900 tons, an increase of 43,400 tons from 2024 [2] - R32 production quota is 280,300 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from 2024 [2] - R134a production quota is 208,300 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from 2024 [2] - R125 production quota is 167,300 tons, an increase of 1,614 tons from 2024 [2] - R143a production quota is 47,300 tons, an increase of 1,781 tons from 2024 [2] - R152a production quota is 33,700 tons, an increase of 1,063 tons from 2024 [2] - R227ea production quota is 31,400 tons, an increase of 157 tons from 2024 [2] - R245fa production quota is 19,500 tons, an increase of 5,354 tons from 2024 [2] - R236fa production quota is 756 tons, a decrease of 86 tons from 2024 [2] - R236ea production quota is 191 tons, an increase of 50 tons from 2024 [2] - R41 production quota is 102 tons, an increase of 52 tons from 2024 [2] Market Dynamics and Demand - Home air conditioning production in November 2024 was 16.71 million units, a 55.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Home air conditioning sales in November 2024 were 15.38 million units, a 44.2% increase year-on-year [4] - Domestic sales of home air conditioning in November 2024 were 6.73 million units, a 28.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Exports of home air conditioning in November 2024 were 8.65 million units, a 59.1% increase year-on-year [4] - Production schedules for December 2024, January 2025, and February 2025 show year-on-year increases of 31.7%, 4.1%, and 31.5% respectively [4] Price Trends - As of December 19, 2024, the average price of R22 is 32,500 yuan/ton, a 66.67% increase from the beginning of the year [4] - The average price of R32 is 40,500 yuan/ton, a 138.24% increase from the beginning of the year [4] - The average price of R134a is 40,000 yuan/ton, a 45.45% increase from the beginning of the year [4] - The average price of R125 is 38,000 yuan/ton, a 38.18% increase from the beginning of the year [4] - The average price of R410a is 39,000 yuan/ton, a 73.33% increase from the beginning of the year [4] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Juhua Group, Sanmei, Yonghe, Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group, Dongyangguang, and upstream raw material fluorite company Jinshi Resources [4]