东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241220

Macro Strategy - The December FOMC meeting expressed a hawkish stance, leading to a strong dollar in the market. The FOMC lowered rates by 25bps, totaling a 100bps reduction since September, bringing the target range to [4.25, 4.5]% [1][9] - The dot plot indicates two rate cuts in 2025-26, with the core PCE forecast for 2025 raised from 2.2% to 2.5%. The Fed is assessing inflation risks from Trump's immigration, tariff, and tax policies [1][9] - It is anticipated that the tightening expectations will peak in the short term, with potential rate cuts of 25bps in March and June 2025, while cautioning against the risk of no cuts in the second half of 2025 [1][9] - The current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.5% and gold prices below $2600 are seen as having high allocation value [1][9] Fixed Income - Economic fundamentals show signs of gradual recovery, with consumer spending supported by policies like "trade-in for new," but uncertainty remains regarding household income recovery. Fixed asset investment is structurally differentiated, with manufacturing investment high, infrastructure stable, but real estate investment declining, impacting market confidence [2][14] - The 10Y and 30Y government bond yields have fallen below 2%, reflecting expectations of a "moderately loose monetary policy." Future low interest rates are expected, but investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high yields [2][14] - In the week of December 9-13, 2024, 22 green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 24.318 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.178 billion yuan from the previous week [2][17] Company Analysis: Sanofi Biologics - Sanofi Biologics received formal notification from the FDA regarding its continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, which has passed the acceptance review and entered the substantive review phase [6][21] - The approval signifies the company's product quality and international competitiveness, with a significant market opportunity in the U.S. CGM space, where major competitors include Dexcom and Abbott [6][21] - The second-generation CGM product has been registered and demonstrates advanced technology with high stability and accuracy, enhancing the company's product line and market competitiveness [6][21] - A partnership with A Menarini Diagnostics is expected to facilitate market expansion in Europe, positively impacting the company's operational performance [6][21] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 4.63 billion, 5.29 billion, and 6.09 billion yuan, with net profits of 412 million, 524 million, and 622 million yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][21]