12月美国FOMC点评：就业权重略有回归，财政政策尚未完全进入视野

Economic Outlook - Powell indicates that the current U.S. economy is strong, with a solid job market and significantly less restrictive policy rates[1] - The dot plot shows a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2025 from 4 times to 2 times, with a median rate of 4%, aligning with expectations[2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is projected to range between 3.7% to 3.85% on the lower end and 4.75% to 5% on the upper end, with models not supporting a breakthrough above 5%[3] Employment and Inflation - The weight of the job market has slightly rebounded, with employment and inflation weights being roughly equal[4] - Powell emphasizes that while the job market is gradually cooling, it remains stable, with low layoff rates and steady job vacancies[5] - The current unemployment rate is low, and inflation is making progress towards the 2% target, although it remains slightly above this target[6] Fiscal Policy and Market Implications - Future fiscal policy impacts have not been fully considered, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation[7] - The report maintains a neutral to slightly positive outlook on U.S. equities, noting that the S&P 500 is currently 31% above its long-term trend[8] - Seasonal inflation is expected to rise, which is seen as a healthy economic indicator, with potential continuation into early next year[9]