12月FOMC会议点评：降息步伐放缓

Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The decision reflects limited new information, as the statements on economic conditions and inflation were consistent with the previous month[4] Economic Outlook - Economic growth forecasts for 2024 were raised from 2.0% to 2.5%, indicating optimism about the economy[5] - Unemployment rate projections for 2024 were reduced from 4.4% to 4.2%, suggesting confidence in the labor market[5] - Inflation expectations for 2024 were slightly increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while 2025's forecast rose significantly from 2.1% to 2.5%[5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market expectations for rate cuts were significantly adjusted, with the probability of a rate hike in January 2025 rising from 1.7% to 93.6%[31] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 12 basis points to 4.5%, and major stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 dropping by 2.6%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively[33] Risks and Considerations - Risks include slower-than-expected declines in U.S. inflation, rising commodity prices, and hawkish Federal Reserve statements[6] - The tightening of overseas liquidity pressures is expected to persist in the short term, although long-term outlooks for U.S. equities remain positive[36]